(Kitco News) – Gold's precipitous price decline over the last four months doesn’t mean the rally is over for the year, and central bank demand will drive the precious metal all the way back to the edge of $5,000, according to Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.
"Gold is not done," Dart said in her team’s latest research note. "We continue to see further upside, driven by both structural and eventually cyclical factors."
Dart pointed to the continued interest in bullion from the world’s central banks as the key factor that gives Goldman Sachs the confidence to project big gains in the second half of the year.
"Structurally, EM central bank diversification — following the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves — remains the anchor of our $4,900/toz end 2026 forecast," she wrote.
The Goldman researchers also cited the recent World Gold Council survey showing a record 45% of the 76 participating central banks expect to increase their own gold reserves over the next 12 months.
Dart did acknowledge, however, that gold faces near-term headwinds as "a hawkish Fed helps fade the debasement theme" even as ETF demand suffers from rising rate hike expectations. "We expect these headwinds to at least partly reverse over time," she said.
The researchers project that ETF positioning will rise gradually, which is consistent with the view of Goldman Sachs’ economists that the Federal Reserve will actually hold rates steady this year before restarting the easing cycle in the second half of 2027.
"Over the medium term, risks to our gold price forecast remain skewed to the upside on net," Dart said, pointing to macro drivers such as concerns over Western fiscal sustainability eventually accelerating private investors’ diversification into gold.
On May 15, Goldman Sachs analysts announced a significant upward revision to their central bank gold demand model to account for gaps in official trade data.
Back in March, the investment bank raised its nowcast of central bank purchases to about 50 tonnes per month on a 12-month moving average basis, up from 29 tonnes under its earlier methodology.
The bank now expects central banks to average around 60 tonnes per month through 2026, supported by continued diversification demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Goldman analysts said their previous estimates had underestimated sovereign demand since August 2025, when UK trade data began failing to fully capture gold outflows from London vaults, resulting in unrecorded sovereign buying.
"Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident," Goldman said, citing its own central bank survey along with recent geopolitical developments as factors likely to support increased demand from both governments and private investors over time.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its $5,400 per ounce gold price target for year-end 2026, but warned that bullion prices could still face near-term pressure if investors are compelled to sell liquid assets to raise cash during market stress.
