(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are lower after the North American cash-market close Monday, as higher oil prices and firmer Treasury yields kept traders focused on Federal Reserve tightening risk rather than safe-haven demand tied to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,015.60 an ounce, down 1.79%, while spot silver was trading near $58.180, down 1.48% on the session.
U.S. equities recovered as the immediate Middle East shock faded. The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1% and the Dow finished above 52,000 at a record close, with risk appetite supported by expectations that U.S.-Iran talks will resume and that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will continue, even if below normal. Precious metals did not follow equities higher, with gold and silver trading as rate-sensitive assets rather than pure geopolitical hedges.
The post-Fed reaction remains the main positioning constraint. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote, but the June projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate path to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and raised the 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.6% from 2.7%. Monday’s price action extended that repricing: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.377%, the two-year yield held above 4.10% and oil’s rebound kept inflation-risk hedges running through the rates channel. The result was a session in which gold’s haven bid was present but secondary to the Fed trade.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as impaired transit, not closure. Traffic slowed to 22 crossings on Sunday, the weakest day since the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary deal to end hostilities, after a Thursday cargo-ship attack and a Saturday oil-tanker incident. The U.S. and Iran agreed Sunday to stop trading blows and resume peace talks, but the waterway remains difficult for shipowners, charterers and crews. The market impact is split: WTI settled up 2.2% at $70.75 a barrel and Brent rose 1.6% to $73.15, while gold fell because the oil move reinforced inflation and Fed-hike risk rather than generating a dominant safe-haven allocation.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and settling around $70.75 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $73.15. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,100.00 to $4,170.85 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,382.62 and then $4,452.75. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.08, with deeper downside targets at $3,900.00 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,170.85. First support is seen at $3,959.08 and then at $3,900.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $59.58 to $61.51 area, with a move above that zone targeting $62.38 and then $65.97. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.70, with deeper downside targets at $54.49 and then $54.23. First resistance is seen at $59.58 and then at $61.51. Next support is seen at $55.70 and then at $54.49.
