(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are weaker ahead of the North American market open on Monday as traders balance renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy against higher oil prices and persistent Federal Reserve rate-hike risk. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,041.90 an ounce, down 1.14%, while spot silver was trading near $58.080, down 1.65% on the session.
The week opens with U.S. jobs data as the main scheduled catalyst. Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report lands before the July 4 market holiday, compressing the reaction window for gold, the dollar and Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve remains the main positioning constraint for precious metals. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote, but the June projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate path to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and raised the 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.6% from 2.7%. Early Monday trading shows the same split: stock futures are higher and the dollar is slightly lower on U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes, but the 10-year Treasury yield is up 1.4 basis points to 4.385% and the market remains positioned for further Fed tightening risk.
The Strait of Hormuz story is now a managed-transit risk, not a full closure shock. The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks and plan to meet Tuesday in Doha over the waterway, with U.S. officials saying vessels can move freely for now. The underlying dispute has not been settled: the traffic coordination hotline was still not operational as of Saturday, and Iran has again asserted a role in managing passage through the strait. The current market impact is cross-cutting: oil is firmer, with Brent near $72.40 and WTI near $69.64, while gold is not getting a full haven bid because higher crude also feeds the Fed-inflation trade.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $69.64 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $72.40. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,069.54 to $4,350.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $4,891.54. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,950.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,886.46 and then $3,707.82. First resistance is seen at $4,069.54 and then at $4,350.00. First support is seen at $3,950.00 and then at $3,886.46.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.00, with deeper downside targets at $50.00 and then $45.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $55.00 and then at $50.00.
