(Kitco Commentary) - Today marks the final day of July, and with it, gold records its first monthly gain since the start of the U.S.–Iran war. Yet to call this a banner month would be to misread the tape. July was not a breakout — it was a consolidation.
At the time of writing, gold futures are lower by $55, or 1.32%, with the most active December contract trading at $4,107.60. On the week, gold shed roughly $15, though that figure carries an asterisk: the roll from August to December inflated week-over-week comparisons due to contango between the two delivery months. Similarly, calling this gold's best month since February is something of a misnomer. With today's decline factored in, the metal is up a mere $16 on the month.
July is better described as gold's first consolidative month since July 2025. The monthly candlestick has formed a near-perfect doji, defined by its nearly identical open and close, and it is the clearest example of that pattern on the monthly chart since February 2025. A doji does not signal direction; it signals indecision. But in the context of the pattern surrounding it, that indecision is itself meaningful.
So what does July's candlestick tell us technically? The low is the most significant data point, representing the first higher low since April. That low also closely matches June's monthly low and the low from October 2025 — three separate occasions on which sellers failed to breach the same general level. This convergence of lows across multiple months is among the strongest evidence that a reversal may be forming in gold or, at a minimum, that a base is developing. Bases, of course, typically precede reversals.
The more compelling signal, however, may be found on the daily chart. Since the paradigm shift in gold's behavior at the onset of the U.S.–Iran conflict — when the metal's primary driver rotated away from central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty toward Federal Reserve policy expectations — gold has been trapped inside a descending triangle, repeatedly rejected at a declining resistance trendline. Yesterday's session produced the first daily close above that trendline in five months. That is not something to dismiss lightly.
It is also not something to trade on in isolation. A single close above resistance is a beginning, not a confirmation. What must follow is a successful retest of that trendline from above — the critical test of whether former resistance has converted into support. Should that retest hold, the technical case for a meaningful rally in gold would strengthen considerably. For now, yesterday's close joins the higher monthly low in the category of necessary, but not yet sufficient, conditions for gold's next leg higher. The pieces are beginning to align. The confirmation is still owed.
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Wishing you, as always, good trading.
