Bitcoin: Bear Flag Holds as RSI Marks Pivot High
Bitcoin appears to be forming a pivot high after the Relative Strength Index closed overbought at 76.83 on Monday's daily candle. While roughly 13 hours remain in today's candle, the early signs point toward a confirmed turning point. The current bear flag pattern remains valid, with volume failing to show overwhelming support or interest at these elevated levels. On a more constructive note, OBV's white moving average line continues to trend bullish and upward, suggesting that underlying accumulation hasn't disappeared entirely. Traders should note that BTC could still put in another high from here before any meaningful correction materializes, similar to the price action seen in early January.
Ethereum: RSI Reset After Channel Breakout
Ethereum broke above its parallel channel resistance level on Monday, a move that technically invalidates the bear flag shape that had been forming. However, the rally was met with an extreme RSI reading of 84.03, making it massively overbought. TBO Resistance is now likely printing a much lower high, falling from 3,384 to 2,376 if today's candle holds red. All the markings of a higher high and RSI Reset are in place for ETH, suggesting the price pushed far higher than expected before the inevitable mean reversion.
Dominance and Market Cap: Stablecoin RSI Reset Signals Bearish Reversal
Combined stablecoin dominance experienced an RSI Reset following the TBT Bearish Divergence Clusters identified in late February. The TBO Close Long signal fired two days ago, and RSI is now oversold, marking the start of a reversal back to higher highs in stablecoin dominance. This is the scenario most participants are not prepared for. TOTALE, the total crypto market cap chart, still maintains a valid bear flag and flipped overbought yesterday before correcting today to mark a pivot high. TOTALES.D also flipped overbought and has since pulled back below that threshold. The TBO Close Short suggests we should expect a pullback before any further upside can materialize.
Dollar and Yen: USDJPY Echoes 2024 Carry Trade Warnings
The US Dollar Index posted a red close on Monday but did not print a bearish engulfing candle. RSI is no longer overbought, having closed back below 70, but it remains too early to confirm this as a definitive pivot high. The USDJPY continues to look overheated, particularly after Friday's TBO Breakout. The weekly chart is now showing a second TBT Bearish Divergence in process, drawing noteworthy parallels to the April and July 2024 signals that preceded a massive pullback driven by the yen carry trade unwind.
Traditional Markets: Strong Bearish Across the Board
The reality of the entire US traditional finance market is that S&P Futures remain in strong bearish mode below the daily TBO Cloud. Nothing has changed in the trajectory of the weekly chart for the TBO, RSI, or OBV. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100, and FANG index are all classified as strong bearish. The VIX remains in what has been identified as the rejection zone. Internationally, the Nikkei is in bearish consolidation mode, the Shanghai Composite dumped 0.85% on the session, and the Hang Seng has rallied back to the daily TBO Fast line while remaining firmly bearish below the Cloud.
Commodities: Gold, Silver, and Oil All Under Pressure
Gold has entered bearish consolidation mode, with silver following a similar trajectory. UK Oil continues to print bearish divergence between price and RSI, reinforcing the broader risk-off sentiment across commodity markets. The overall picture across TradFi resembles a massive barge or aircraft carrier, slow to turn but decisively headed in one direction.
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