(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are modestly lower and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Friday, as traders held gold near the $4,600 area ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and the Labor Department’s preliminary payrolls benchmark revision. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,593.20 an ounce, down 0.16%, while spot silver was trading at $70.170, up 1.50% on the session.
The latest positioning is built around two 10 a.m. ET catalysts. Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair will be judged against Wednesday’s hotter PCE print, this week’s firm durable-goods and GDP data and the prior sequence of softer retail sales, cooler CPI and flat headline PPI. At the same time, the Labor Department will publish its preliminary benchmark estimate for payrolls through March 2026, a release that could reset confidence in the labor-market data after July payrolls fell by 23,000. Markets were pricing roughly a 34% probability of a September rate hike and about a 74% chance of at least one hike by December, while 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were little changed but still close to recent multiyear highs. For gold, the immediate risk is straightforward: a hawkish Warsh or a smaller-than-feared payroll revision would support yields and cap the rally, while a dovish tone or a large downward payroll revision would reinforce the hold-rate trade.
Silver remains the stronger precious-metals tape. The metal traded above $71 earlier in the session and is holding above the $69.96 breakout zone, while gold is consolidating below the $4,604 and $4,625.87 resistance area after failing to regain its midweek high. The split reflects silver’s extra industrial and momentum bid, while gold is trading more directly off the Fed, dollar and long-yield channel. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, said price action has been “pretty constructive recently.”
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. The U.S.-Israel war against Iran has reached the six-month mark, with Washington shifting toward economic pressure and sanctions while showing little interest in renewed talks. The U.S. says the strait is open, but only 24 vessels passed through on Thursday, a fraction of the roughly 130 daily crossings seen before the war. Qatar’s prime minister was in Tehran Thursday to discuss an Iran-Oman plan to boost traffic through the waterway. Oil is lower in early trade, with WTI near $83.46 a barrel, but restricted Gulf flows keep a geopolitical premium in energy. For gold, that leaves the setup supportive but conflicted: Hormuz risk supports safe-haven demand, while any oil-led inflation pressure would strengthen the case for higher rates.
Global markets were mixed ahead of the U.S. open. U.S. stock-index futures were mixed as traders waited for Warsh’s 10 a.m. ET remarks. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.8%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% and China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.7%. European markets were firmer in early trade, with the FTSE 100 up 0.2%.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $83.46 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is mixed to firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,604.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,640.00 and then $4,698.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,575.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,546.00 and then $4,511.00. First resistance is seen at $4,604.00 and then at $4,640.00. First support is seen at $4,575.00 and then at $4,546.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $70.60, with a move above that level targeting $71.16. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.69, with deeper downside targets at $66.55 and then $65.66. First resistance is seen at $70.60 and then at $71.16. Next support is seen at $67.69 and then at $66.55.
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