(Kitco NewsWire) - Gold and silver prices are modestly higher in late-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday, as safe-haven demand tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff offset a firmer U.S. dollar and a still-elevated rate backdrop. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,412.50 an ounce, up 0.56% on the session, while spot silver was trading at $65.680, up 0.13%.
The latest market positioning remains a two-sided trade into Wednesday’s CPI report and Thursday’s producer price data. Last week’s weaker jobs data kept rate-sensitive gold underpinned, but the rebound in crude oil and a still-elevated inflation path have pulled September Fed expectations back toward a coin toss. The 10-year Treasury yield was near the 4.7% area, while the U.S. dollar was firmer, leaving gold supported by defensive flows but limiting follow-through above the session high.
North American equities closed softer after last week’s record levels. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,728.20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% to 53,791.85 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6% to 26,445.45, while the Russell 2000 rose 0.3% to 3,027.12. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 finished up 0.05% at 661, Germany’s DAX gained 0.17%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.13%, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.16% and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.13%.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical risk premium across metals and energy. Iran’s newly appointed Supreme National Security Council secretary said the waterway would remain closed unless Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions, while President Donald Trump added a new demand for compensation from Iran. Pakistan had raised hopes of a possible arrangement, but Tuesday’s price action showed the market was not yet prepared to price a near-term reopening. Brent crude settled at $88.91 a barrel, up 1.4%, and WTI settled at $83.20, up 1.3%, keeping inflation risk in the tape and supporting gold more than silver.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading around $83.20 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $88.91. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today's gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.) The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,360 to $4,380 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,480 and then $4,500. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,350, with deeper downside targets at $4,300 and then the $4,180 to $4,200 zone. First resistance is seen at $4,360 to $4,380 and then at $4,480. First support is seen at $4,350 and then at $4,300.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.51 pivot, with a move above that zone targeting $71.26 and then $72.08. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.00, with deeper downside targets at $61.75 and then $60.835. First resistance is seen at $66.51 and then at $71.26. Next support is seen at $64.00 and then at $61.75.
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