(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher after the North American cash-market close Wednesday, as precious metals started the third quarter with a rebound while a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields kept positioning defensive ahead of Thursday’s June employment report. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,036.90 an ounce, up 0.75%, while spot silver was trading near $59.070, up 1.03% on the session.
Gold’s New York spot range was $3,959.40 to $4,115.90, keeping the metal above the $4,000 level after another test of support. Silver’s New York range was $57.05 to $61.12, with the metal outperforming gold and briefly clearing the $60.00 area before easing back late in the session.
Positioning is centered on Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET before the July 4 market holiday. Private payrolls rose 98,000 in June, below consensus and down from 122,000 in May, while broader expectations call for the official payrolls report to show 110,000 jobs added, down from 172,000 in May. The setup leaves gold and silver exposed to a two-sided payrolls shock: a firm print would support the dollar, yields and Fed-rate risk, while a softer print would challenge that positioning and could extend the metals rebound.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as faster-than-expected flow recovery with unresolved security risk. Middle East oil transit and production have resumed faster than many analysts expected after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, and Brent crude is back near prewar levels as tankers move through the strait.
But the recovery is incomplete: recent volumes through Hormuz averaged about 7 million barrels per day, well below the prewar 20 million barrels per day, and the market remains vulnerable to any renewed disruption or breakdown in negotiations.
The current impact is bearish for oil, supportive for risk assets and only modestly supportive for gold, since the immediate energy-inflation shock has faded.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and settling around $68.58 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $71.57. The U.S. dollar index is firmer near 101.42. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,044.00 to $4,100.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,200.00 and then $4,370.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,900.00 and then $3,886.00. First resistance is seen at $4,044.00 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at $3,959.00 and then at $3,900.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.41 to $61.54 area, with a move above that zone targeting $64.25 and then $69.85. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.13, with deeper downside targets at $56.50 and then $55.00. First resistance is seen at $60.41 and then at $61.54. Next support is seen at $57.13 and then at $56.50.
