(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, with bargain hunting emerging after a four-session selloff while the dollar remains near a one-year high and Treasury yields hold near the 4.4% area. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,012.80 an ounce, up 0.36% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $58.130, up 1.44%.
The latest U.S. inflation print did little to remove the Fed constraint on precious metals. May PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, matching the annual consensus and coming in slightly below the 0.5% monthly forecast. U.S. stock futures strengthened after the release, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 2.3%, S&P 500 futures up 0.8% and Dow futures up 0.2%, reflecting relief that the print was not hotter than expected.
The market is still trading off the June 17 Federal Reserve reset. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, but the updated projections moved the debate away from 2026 cuts and toward at least one possible hike before year-end. Nine Fed officials projected at least one hike in 2026, a shift that has left gold and silver exposed to higher real-rate expectations even as oil has backed away from its war premium.
The Strait of Hormuz story is now less a closure shock and more a normalization test. Brent crude fell to $72.24 a barrel, near prewar levels, after tanker traffic through the strait doubled over 24 hours to the highest level since late February and vessels resumed transiting with satellite signals switched on. That has removed part of the immediate safe-haven bid for gold, softened inflation fear in energy markets and helped risk assets recover. The caveat is that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and shipping recovery remain politically fragile, so gold is losing the panic premium without fully exiting the geopolitical-risk trade.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around the $70 area, while Brent crude was near $72.24. The U.S. dollar index is firmer near 101.64. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,023.00 to $4,090.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,357.00 and then $4,597.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,900.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,830.00 and then $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at $4,023.00 and then at $4,090.00. First support is seen at $3,900.00 and then at $3,830.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $59.62 to $62.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.20, with deeper downside targets at $53.40 and then $51.26. First resistance is seen at $59.62 and then at $62.00. Next support is seen at $57.20 and then at $53.40.
