(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as oil prices fell on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and traders balanced lower energy-risk premiums against the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June signal. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,203.80 an ounce, up 1.16%, while spot silver was trading at $66.325, up 2.30% on the session.
The latest post-Fed positioning remains rates-led. The June meeting left the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, while the dot plot showed more policymakers leaning toward higher rates in 2026 and Chair Kevin Warsh did not submit his own rate projection. The immediate market read remains unfavorable for metals when yields and the dollar rise, but Monday’s lower oil tape softened the inflation-shock channel that drove the hawkish repricing after the Fed decision.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical transmission channel into gold, oil, rates and risk assets, but the latest U.S.-Iran setup is being priced as fragile de-escalation rather than a cleared supply route. High-level talks in Switzerland ended with technical talks scheduled for the rest of the week, and mediators said “encouraging progress” had been made. Iran said the strait was shut again over the weekend, while the U.S. said traffic continued.
The market impact is disinflationary at the margin: Brent and WTI are lower, equity futures are mixed rather than defensive and gold is drawing support from lower energy-risk pressure without a full safe-haven bid. For silver, the same mix is supportive because lower yields help the investment side, while the still-fragile shipping backdrop keeps an inflation and industrial-risk premium in the complex.
U.S. equity futures were mixed before the open. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, Dow futures were unchanged and Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%. The move followed stronger Asian trading, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 closing at another record, while investors waited for the May personal consumption expenditures price index later this week.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $75.11 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $79.02. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the mid-4% area, with no approved live intraday level included.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,221 to $4,226 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,287 and then the $4,364 pivot area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,160, with deeper downside targets at $4,073 and then $4,000. First resistance is seen at $4,221 and then at $4,287. First support is seen at $4,160 and then at $4,073.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.99 to $69.02 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.53, with deeper downside targets at $62.92 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $66.99 and then at $69.02. Next support is seen at $64.53 and then at $62.92.
