(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher in early U.S. trading Tuesday, as oil prices extended their U.S.-Iran deal selloff, Treasury yields eased and traders positioned for the June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,343.20 an ounce, up 0.81%, while spot silver was trading at $70.47, up 0.86% on the session.
The macro setup is still being driven by the energy-to-rates channel. The May inflation data kept the Fed-rate debate restrictive, but the collapse in crude from last week’s Hormuz-risk highs has taken pressure off inflation expectations and supported a bid in precious metals. The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with the updated Summary of Economic Projections making the rate-path signal more important than the decision itself.
The U.S. and Iran have a tentative deal to end their conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and continue negotiations for 60 days, but Israel has rejected a condition tied to withdrawal from Lebanon and the agreement has not been made public. Oil is the clearest transmission asset: Brent fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March after reports that Iranian tankers had resumed shipping. For gold, the impact is two-sided: reduced war risk caps the pure safe-haven bid, while lower oil and softer yields support the rate-sensitive side of the trade. For equities, the immediate read-through is constructive for airlines, chips and broader risk appetite, while energy shares remain under pressure.
U.S. equity futures pointed to modest gains before the open, with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Dow futures up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. The move followed Monday’s relief rally and a continuing drop in crude, while Japan’s Nikkei briefly topped 70,000 after the Bank of Japan raised its key rate to 1%, its highest level in three decades.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $78.40 a barrel, while Brent crude was around $80.80 in early U.S. trade before later slipping below $80. The U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower in early trade, with no approved live intraday level included.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the 200-day exponential moving average, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day exponential moving average and then the $4,600 area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,200, with deeper downside targets at $4,000 and then the lower end of the recent correction range. First resistance is seen at the 200-day exponential moving average and then at the 50-day exponential moving average. First support is seen at $4,200 and then at $4,000.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $70.00, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day exponential moving average near $74.60 and then the $72.47 to $74.60 resistance area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below the 200-day exponential moving average, with deeper downside targets at $63.50 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $72.47 and then at $74.60. Next support is seen at the 200-day exponential moving average and then at $63.50.
