(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are higher and spot silver prices are near steady after the close Tuesday, as falling crude oil, lower Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar supported gold ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,331.10 an ounce, up 0.50%, while spot silver was trading at $69.995, down 0.01% on the session.
The macro setup is being driven by the oil-to-rates channel. Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March, after reports that Iranian tankers had resumed shipping and that Washington and Tehran had virtually signed an agreement to end the blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin 60 days of nuclear negotiations. Lower oil prices pulled Treasury yields lower and weakened the dollar, giving gold support even as reduced geopolitical risk capped the haven bid.
The initial Strait of Hormuz deal has improved supply expectations, but tanker traffic remains limited, shipping insurance risk is unresolved and analysts still expect the physical oil-market repair process to take weeks to months. The current market impact is clear: oil is lower, inflation-risk pressure has eased, the 10-year Treasury yield has moved lower, equities are mixed rather than broadly risk-on and gold is trading more like a rates asset than a war hedge. Silver is steadier because lower yields are supportive, but a softer oil complex also reduces the inflation and industrial stress that helped drive the earlier silver bid.
Markets enter Wednesday’s Fed decision positioned for no rate change but for a potentially more important reset in language, projections and communication. The meeting is Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed chair, and the updated Summary of Economic Projections is the main risk event for metals. The baseline is a hold in the 3.50% to 3.75% target range, while traders are focused on whether the Fed drops the easing bias, removes the remaining 2026 cut from the dot plot or signals a higher-for-longer path as inflation remains above target.
For gold and silver, the positioning risk is asymmetric: a less-hawkish Warsh tone would reinforce the lower-yield rebound, while a dot plot that validates later-year hikes would put the $4,300 gold floor and the $68 silver zone back in play.
U.S. stocks finished mixed, with the Dow at another record and AI-linked shares weighing on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 fell 42.94 points, or 0.6%, to 7,511.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 328.64 points, or 0.6%, to 51,999.67. The Nasdaq Composite fell 307.60 points, or 1.2%, to 26,376.34. The Russell 2000 fell 25.89 points, or 0.9%, to 2,939.19.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply lower, while Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is lower, with no approved live intraday DXY level included.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,370.00 to $4,390.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,580.00 and then $4,600.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,300.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,200.00 and then $4,180.00. First resistance is seen at $4,370.00 and then at $4,390.00. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,200.00.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $71.00 to $72.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting the 50-day moving average at $75.42 and then the $78.00 to $79.00 area. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.00, with deeper downside targets at $66.00 and then $65.00. First resistance is seen at $71.00 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $68.00 and then at $66.00.
