(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as the U.S.-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz cut crude prices, eased inflation-risk pricing and softened the U.S. dollar. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,336.20 an ounce, up 2.79%, while spot silver was trading near $70.670, up 4.07% on the session.
The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index fell 14 points to 5.7 in June, leaving activity positive but slower after May’s stronger reading. New orders printed at 3.5, shipments at 8.6, prices paid held elevated at 61.0 and prices received held at 31.4. The supply availability index slipped to -13.9, its weakest level since June 2022, keeping a visible supply-chain inflation channel in the macro mix.
Traders are watching U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET, followed by Tuesday’s import and export prices, housing starts and the June 17 FOMC decision.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant cross-asset driver. The latest framework deal points to a reopening of the route and removal of the U.S. naval blockade, but logistics, mine-clearing, sanctions relief and the durability of the 60-day negotiation window remain unresolved. Markets are treating the headline as disinflationary and risk-positive: Brent fell toward the $83-$84 area, U.S. crude traded below $80, European equities rallied and precious metals rose as the oil-driven inflation impulse receded alongside the dollar.
Global markets were bid across Asia and Europe, with energy shares under pressure and rate-sensitive sectors helped by the retreat in crude. The move leaves gold in a cleaner position than last week’s Hormuz trade: the safe-haven premium is smaller, but lower oil, lower inflation expectations and a softer dollar are offsetting the loss of geopolitical urgency.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading below $80 a barrel, while Brent crude was near the $83-$84 area. The U.S. dollar index is softer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,364.00 to $4,400.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,460.00 and then $4,575.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,280.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,240.00 and then $4,194.00. First resistance is seen at $4,364.00 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at $4,280.00 and then at $4,240.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $72.21 to $72.47 area, with a move above that zone targeting $74.00 and then $78.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.15, with deeper downside targets at $68.00 and then $66.50. First resistance is seen at $72.21 and then at $72.47. Next support is seen at $68.15 and then at $68.00.
