The record, Feb 1971 – Oct 2026
Overview · 4 turning points
55 years, four turning points
Gold and silver, monthly averages from Feb 1971 to Oct 2026, with every presidency. The story steps through each turning point.
Monthly averages, log scale, nominal U.S. dollars. D = Democratic presidency, R = Republican.
From the record
Eight figures, each one click from the chart.
- 01
8 of 13
midterms were followed by higher gold 12 months later; average +13.7%, the last two +20.5% (2018) and +15.0% (2022).
November election month to the November a year later, monthly averages, 1974–2022.
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$16,000
Who wins the gold race: $1,000 in gold held only during Republican presidencies since 1971 grew to about $16,000; held only during Democratic ones, about $6,600. Silver ran the other way: about $9,100 during Democratic presidencies, $3,900 during Republican ones.
Month-on-month changes compounded over the months each party held the White House, the rest of the time in cash; monthly averages, nominal U.S. dollars.
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6 of 12
Six months after U.S. military operations, gold was higher only half the time. After economic shocks the record reads differently: Lehman, +11.3% six months later and +113.5% in three years; COVID, +20.7% in six months.
Operation month to six months after (the chart’s military operations); Lehman Sep 2008 and the COVID pandemic Mar 2020 from the chart’s market moments; monthly averages.
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×105
gold’s monthly average, Feb 1971 ($39.00) to Oct 2026 ($4,104).
First and last month of the record, nominal U.S. dollars.
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+8.7%
a year for gold across the whole record, compounding month by month.
668 month-on-month changes, compounded and annualised.
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6 of 7
Fed rate-cut cycles ended with gold higher than at the first cut; median +6.1%.
FOMC easing cycles since 1990, first-cut month to last-cut month.
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5 of 7
NBER recessions ended with gold higher than at the peak month; median +4.9%.
NBER peak month to trough month, 1973–2020.
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+11.1%
a year for gold during months with CPI inflation at 5% or more, against +8.0% in the other months.
150 high-inflation months, compounded and annualised.
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What’s inside
Eight ways into the record.
Scenario Lab
Build a set of conditions, from party control to inflation and rates, and see what the record did in the months that matched, read on the Record Tilt gauge.
Open in chartLearn
15 plain-English explainers, each with its episodes on the chart and a past-performance table from the record.
Open in chartCalendar
Scheduled FOMC, CPI, jobs, GDP and election dates, with what the record did after each kind.
Open in chartAsk the chart
Plain-English questions, answered by AI from the record only.
Open in chartQuant tools
Analogues finds the past months most like now; Drivers ranks what moved with gold; Scorecard and Compare line up terms and periods.
Open in chartReal prices
Any month can be read in inflation-adjusted dollars, using CPI-U.
The Jan 1980 peak: $675 at the time, $2,923 in Sep 2026 dollars.
Open in chartExplore and Highlights
Condition cards for inflation, yields, the dollar and more, as bars or a dial, plus the record’s standout months.
Open in chartEvent studies and midterms
Gold and silver around 22 wars and shocks, and four midterm scenarios with their past record.
Gold was higher a year after 8 of 13 midterms.
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Lens 01
Presidents and parties
- Gold rose +8.2% a year during Democratic presidencies and +9.2% during Republican ones; silver +9.7% and +4.4%.
- Among full terms, the strongest for gold was Carter at +41.6% a year; the weakest was H.W. Bush at −5.4%. Nixon (partial term, from Feb 1971) ran at +46.0%.
- Party sits alongside the dollar, rates and inflation in every one of these windows, so the record shows what happened during a term, not why.
Lens 02
Midterms and elections
- After 8 of 13 midterms gold was higher a year later (average +13.7%, median +15.0%); silver was higher after 9 of 13.
- After presidential elections the count is 8 of 14, median +3.7%.
- For comparison, the median 12-month change after any month since 1971 is +5.9%.
Lens 03
Wars and shocks
- Six months after the 22 tracked events, gold was higher in 12 (median +3.9%).
- U.S. military operations: 6 of 12 higher, median +0.3%. Other shocks: 6 of 10, median +7.8%.
Lens 04
Rates and inflation
- Across Fed rate-cut cycles gold ended higher in 6 of 7 (median +6.1%); across rate-hike cycles in 4 of 5 (median +5.4%).
- Twelve months after the four QE launches gold was higher in 3 of 4, median +17.4%.
- During high-inflation months gold compounded at +11.1% a year, against +8.7% across the whole record.